Summary
India is expected to face major stress on its power system during the upcoming El Niño weather pattern, according to a new report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). The analysis warns that weaker renewable energy generation combined with higher demand for cooling could create a power shortfall of nearly 18 terawatt hours (TWh). This gap is likely to be filled by increased coal-fired electricity, leading to an estimated 17 million tonnes of extra carbon dioxide emissions.
Main Impact
The El Niño weather pattern, expected between July 2026 and June 2027, could hit India's power system harder than any other country. The report says that higher temperatures will drive up the need for air conditioning while reducing output from wind and hydropower. This double effect could widen the gap between electricity supply and demand, putting the grid under severe pressure.
Key Details
What Happened
CREA modeled the impact of the shift from La Niña to El Niño on India's power system. The analysis found that the additional cooling demand alone could reach 10 TWh over the year, which is roughly equal to a quarter of Delhi's annual electricity use. Combined with lower renewable energy output, India could face a total power generation shortfall of nearly 18 TWh.
Important Numbers and Facts
The report warns that the most likely response to this shortfall would be increased coal-fired electricity generation. In the most severe scenario, extra coal generation could reach 24 TWh, which is about half of India's entire increase in coal use last year. This would result in an estimated 17 million tonnes of additional carbon dioxide emissions. The report also notes that India recently recorded its highest-ever power demand of 270 GW during a deadly heatwave.
Background and Context
El Niño is a recurring climate pattern linked to warmer global temperatures, while La Niña represents its cooler phase. The report says the expected 2026 El Niño should be seen as a sign of more frequent extreme weather events caused by climate change. This underscores the need to make India's power grid more resilient. The analysis also points out that record electricity demand peaks are often used to justify building more coal-fired capacity, but coal plants face growing challenges in responding to daily fluctuations in demand.
Public or Industry Reaction
CREA argues that India should stay on track to reach its target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel power capacity by 2030. The group says the country should speed up investments in battery storage and grid modernization to ensure clean energy can reliably meet future spikes in demand. The report also notes that grid operators curtailed about 2.1 TWh of solar and wind generation last year just to keep coal plants running, highlighting the inefficiency of relying on coal.
What This Means Going Forward
The report suggests that expanding solar power offers a more resilient alternative. Solar currently meets about 24% of India's daytime electricity demand and is far less affected by El Niño than wind and hydropower. CREA says every additional solar panel and battery that India installs helps protect the grid against extreme weather patterns. The analysis warns that without such investments, India will remain dependent on coal, which is both polluting and less able to handle the changing demands of a modern power system.
Final Take
The upcoming El Niño is a clear warning that India's power system needs to become more flexible and clean. Relying on coal to fill gaps caused by extreme weather is not a long-term solution. Investing in solar power, battery storage, and a smarter grid will be essential to keep the lights on without worsening climate change.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is El Niño and how does it affect India's power system?
El Niño is a climate pattern that brings warmer global temperatures. For India, this means higher electricity demand for cooling and weaker output from wind and hydropower, putting extra strain on the power grid.
How much extra coal might India need to burn during El Niño?
According to CREA, India could need to generate an extra 24 TWh of coal-fired electricity in the worst case. This would release about 17 million tonnes of additional carbon dioxide emissions.
What can India do to prepare for El Niño?
India can invest more in solar power, battery storage, and grid modernization. These steps help ensure clean energy can meet rising demand and reduce the need for coal during extreme weather events.
